Crude Oil Morning Prep 06/07/13

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Marty's Notes

Marty's Levels

Crude Oil Weekly:

Crude Oil Weekly

The weekly anchor chart of Crude Oil shows us testing the highs of the price-wedge as we head to the sell-zone overhead at 95.83.  We know to expect a lot of supply to enter the market at 95.83 so we will be cautious buying long this morning and look for the easy-money coming from the price-reversal and the short off the highs.  We still have room to push higher in the short term, so keep an eye on that 95.83 to 97.34 range above us this morning and look for that easy selling opportunity if we get it later in the day today.

Crude Oil Daily:

Crude Oil Daily

The daily chart shows us an additional sell-zone level at 95.25 up to 95.92 so we now can see that supply will enter the market a little earlier than we first saw from the weekly chart.  We will now be looking for the price-reversal as early as 95.25 this morning, which is also the PIT session highs from Thursday and we always know that will be treated as resistance.  Once again, we see clues that buying long this morning will be challenging, with lots of resistance and supply entering the market at the highs of the price-wedge on the daily.

Crude Oil 4-Hour:

Crude Oil 4-Hour

The 240-minute anchor chart shows us the bearish price-channel has been broken and we have a price-reversal zone above us now 94.69.  This old bear price-channel and the sell-zones above us we know that at ANY minute we can see a price-reversal and price will drop off the resistance levels overhead.  The 4-hour chart tells me to be careful buying this morning, and stay patient for the selling opportunity later in the session today.

Crude Oil 60-Minute:

Crude Oil 60-Minute

The hourly anchor chart shows us the bullish price-channel which tells us to buy the lows and the support levels below the lows of the price-channel.  This hourly chart shakes things up a little after we saw the bearish price-channel on the 4-hour.  The bull price-channel says to buy the lows and use the levels at 94.76, and 94.15 for buying opportunities if price-action pulls back to the lows.

Dollar-Index Analysis:

Dollar Index 

The Dollar-Index has been getting KILLED this week, but we can see a sideways-trading-range has developed in the pre-market here in the US today.  We will look for the Non-Farm Payroll report to give the Dollar-Index some reason to move, so this will not last very long this morning most likely.  We will need to look for a new short-term trend on the Dollar-Index after 8:45am EST this morning when the market personality has responded to the news from Non-Farm Payroll.

The Plan Today:

Crude Oil 5-Minute

The day trading plan this morning is to sell the highs of this range at the PHOD 95.32 and take a profit-target at the 95.05 and 94.88 support levels below us.  If price-action moves to the lows of the range we have a HUGE buying opportunity at the 94.56 down to 94.37 areas.  The bullish price-channel from the 60-minute chart is down at 94.56 so we will be looking to buy these lows later in the morning session.

As prices rise higher this morning we will be careful buying pullbacks above the 95.50 and use the profit-target of 95.75.  We will take profit-target at 95.75 and look for a SELLING opportunity at this level as well.  One final price-reversal level overhead that we will look for is 95.92 which is the previous week’s highs and the price reversal zone from our morning analysis.

We must remember that today is Non-Farm Payroll Friday so we must trade carefully this morning and remember that price-action will deteriorate quickly after 10:30am EST this morning so keep an eye on the clock.