06/03/13 Crude Oil Morning Prep; Screen to Floor

Marty's PIT Session Notes

Marty's PIT Levels

Crude Oil Weekly

Crude Oil Weekly:

We begin the new week looking at the weekly chart of Crude Oil 07-13 contract.  We can see that price-action has fallen off the highs of the price-wedge and is resting at the trigger-zone support on the way to the lows of the price-wedge and buy-zone at 89.31.  We know this tells us that buying opportunities will likely be the high-percentage-trades this morning, but we need to drill-down further to see what the rest of the story tells us this morning.

Crude Oil Daily

Crude Oil Daily:

The daily chart of Crude Oil shows us much of the same this morning, with trigger-zone support holding us here just above a new daily-chart buy-zone at 91.66.  This chart reinforces the idea that buyers are in control this morning and that the sellers are going to have to work hard if they want to take that control back in Monday’s trading session.

Crude Oil 240-Minute

Crude Oil 4-Hour:

The 4-hour anchor chart shows us the bounce off the lows of this bearish price-wedge we have been watching for over 3 weeks.  We always know to look for bounces off the lows of any price-structure such as a price-wedge or price-channel, but we also know that a bearish price-channel tells us to sell the HIGHS for the high-percentage-trades and this is clearly not at the highs.  This is a big clue for us this morning because we had earlier clues that price-action may be rising higher this morning, but this tells us it may just be a short term ‘bounce’ off the lows of this price-channel and the long-term trend being bearish may indeed bring this price-action right back down to the lows this morning. 

This 240-minute chart of Crude Oil leaves the door wide open for both directions this morning, and we will need to look closely at the market personality at the open this morning to get a better feel for which direction our first trade will be today.

Crude Oil 60-Minute 

Crude Oil 60-Minute:

The hourly anchor chart tells us to be selling at these resistance levels overhead.  We saw bullish clues on the slower chart timeframes but now we’re seeing reasons to look for selling opportunities as price-action runs into the resistance at trend lines, sell-zones and trigger-zones overhead.  This 60-minute chart tells me to sell short with a profit-target down at the lows of the trading range.

Crude Oil 5-Minute

Crude Oil 5-Minute:

We look to sell the highs of the London trading Session with price-action failing to stay above the price-reversal zone on this 5-minute VIP chart.  We can see a profit-target at 92.28 and 92.07 on the way down to the runner profit-target at the lows of 91.50.  We will then look to buy the lows of the range at the London trading Session lows of 91.37.  If prices keep moving lower below 91.00 we will then resume selling short once again because we will know that the sellers are still in control, and we have profit-targets below us at 90.71, 90.29 and 89.62.

Dollar-Index Analysis:

Dollar Index 5-Minute

Dollar-Index is moving higher this morning, which further confirms our clues to sell short on Crude Oil.  There is a negative Dollar-Index-correlation with Crude Oil and many other markets and we will use this clue to look for selling opportunities when the Dollar-Index is rising, and buying opportunities if the Dollar-Index collapses back into the London trading Session range below it.