Crude Oil Morning Prep 06/11/13

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Marty's PIT Notes

Marty's PIT Price LEvels

Economic News This morning:

We do not have any major economic news on the schedule this morning, and we know that Crude Oil loves to move around the major news, so we must stay patient this morning if the market personality does not warrant us entering into new positions. 

Crude Oil 60-Minute:

Crude Oil 60-Minute Anchor Chart

We can see three big clues from the hourly anchor chart this morning.  First, we see the bullish price-channel tells us to buy the lows of the price-channel and take a profit-target at the highs.  Second, we see the price-wedge telling us to buy the lows of the price-wedge and we combine that with the bullish price-channel and we have a nice bullish 1-2-punch to get long this morning as price moves higher.  Third, we see the major support below us at 93.98.

The Plan Today:

Crude Oil VIP Price Levels

The day trading plan today for Crude Oil Futures is to stay patient because of the lack of major news on the schedule, and look for buying opportunities as prices move both higher and lower this morning.  We know that price-action looks bearish going into the opening bell, so we may need to wait a little this morning before we see a decent price-reversal off the support levels listed on the 5-minute chart.

Support Levels Below today:

94.64, 94.31, 94.29, 94.02, 93.89, 93.42, 92.67

Resistance levels above today:

95.19, 95.22, 95.37, 95.45, 95.56, 95.58, 95.71, 95.86, 96.19, 96.39, 96.62, 97.08

Crude Oil Morning Prep 06/10/13

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Marty's PIT Session Levels

Crude Oil Weekly:

Crude Oil Weekly

We are trading at the highs of the price-wedge on the weekly chart this morning, which suggests supply will enter the market this morning and price-action is likely to push lower in the long term this week.

Crude Oil 4-Hour:

Crude Oil 4-Hour

The 240-minute chart shows us a break of the bear price-channel has resulted in price-action testing the bearish price-reversal zone overhead.  This is a big clue for prices to move LOWER this morning as we go into a new week of trading.

Crude Oil 60-Minute:

Crude Oil 60-Minute

The hourly chart shows us a completely different scenario, while keeping the same directional bias as the slower timeframe this morning.  We can see the bullish price-channel on this anchor chart with price-action moving lower off the highs from last week.  This 60-minute chart tells us that the 95.00 area will be a great place to look for a profit-target for the short-sellers, and look to buy the 95.00 area if you are a buyer.  We will use this chart as a very important clue this morning.

Crude Oil 5-Minute:

Crude Oil 5-Minute

We have a narrow trading range overnight last night, which makes us assume there will be an attempt at a breakout this morning at 8:00am EST.  Without much news on the schedule this morning we can assume 2-sided trading, however, we will always keep our eyes open for market personality clues along the way.

We have levels of support below us at 95.43, 95.28, 95.10, 95.05, 94.82, 94.75 which we will use this morning for a price-reversal and a buying opportunity to get LONG.

We have levels of resistance above us at 95.80, 95.90, 96.02, 96.15, 96.30, 96.48, and 96.76 which will be used for a price-reversal and a selling opportunity to get SHORT.

Crude Oil Morning Prep 06/07/13

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Marty's Notes

Marty's Levels

Crude Oil Weekly:

Crude Oil Weekly

The weekly anchor chart of Crude Oil shows us testing the highs of the price-wedge as we head to the sell-zone overhead at 95.83.  We know to expect a lot of supply to enter the market at 95.83 so we will be cautious buying long this morning and look for the easy-money coming from the price-reversal and the short off the highs.  We still have room to push higher in the short term, so keep an eye on that 95.83 to 97.34 range above us this morning and look for that easy selling opportunity if we get it later in the day today.

Crude Oil Daily:

Crude Oil Daily

The daily chart shows us an additional sell-zone level at 95.25 up to 95.92 so we now can see that supply will enter the market a little earlier than we first saw from the weekly chart.  We will now be looking for the price-reversal as early as 95.25 this morning, which is also the PIT session highs from Thursday and we always know that will be treated as resistance.  Once again, we see clues that buying long this morning will be challenging, with lots of resistance and supply entering the market at the highs of the price-wedge on the daily.

Crude Oil 4-Hour:

Crude Oil 4-Hour

The 240-minute anchor chart shows us the bearish price-channel has been broken and we have a price-reversal zone above us now 94.69.  This old bear price-channel and the sell-zones above us we know that at ANY minute we can see a price-reversal and price will drop off the resistance levels overhead.  The 4-hour chart tells me to be careful buying this morning, and stay patient for the selling opportunity later in the session today.

Crude Oil 60-Minute:

Crude Oil 60-Minute

The hourly anchor chart shows us the bullish price-channel which tells us to buy the lows and the support levels below the lows of the price-channel.  This hourly chart shakes things up a little after we saw the bearish price-channel on the 4-hour.  The bull price-channel says to buy the lows and use the levels at 94.76, and 94.15 for buying opportunities if price-action pulls back to the lows.

Dollar-Index Analysis:

Dollar Index 

The Dollar-Index has been getting KILLED this week, but we can see a sideways-trading-range has developed in the pre-market here in the US today.  We will look for the Non-Farm Payroll report to give the Dollar-Index some reason to move, so this will not last very long this morning most likely.  We will need to look for a new short-term trend on the Dollar-Index after 8:45am EST this morning when the market personality has responded to the news from Non-Farm Payroll.

The Plan Today:

Crude Oil 5-Minute

The day trading plan this morning is to sell the highs of this range at the PHOD 95.32 and take a profit-target at the 95.05 and 94.88 support levels below us.  If price-action moves to the lows of the range we have a HUGE buying opportunity at the 94.56 down to 94.37 areas.  The bullish price-channel from the 60-minute chart is down at 94.56 so we will be looking to buy these lows later in the morning session.

As prices rise higher this morning we will be careful buying pullbacks above the 95.50 and use the profit-target of 95.75.  We will take profit-target at 95.75 and look for a SELLING opportunity at this level as well.  One final price-reversal level overhead that we will look for is 95.92 which is the previous week’s highs and the price reversal zone from our morning analysis.

We must remember that today is Non-Farm Payroll Friday so we must trade carefully this morning and remember that price-action will deteriorate quickly after 10:30am EST this morning so keep an eye on the clock.

Crude Oil Morning Prep 06 06 13

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Marty's Trading Levels

Crude Oil Daily:

Crude Oil Daily Chart

We begin the morning looking at the daily anchor chart, which shows us a bullish daily candlestick that is within the range from Wednesday.  We can see that price-action is headed higher to test the sell-zone at 95.25 and we will look for buying opportunities on the way up to 95.25, where we will take final profit-targets and then look for a price-reversal and a selling opportunity at the highs of the price-wedge and the sell-zone at 95.25 up to 95.92.

Crude Oil 4-Hour:

Crude Oil 4-Hour Anchor 

The 240-minute anchor chart shows us more information that suggests the buyers are going to have a hard time pushing these prices higher because of the major resistance levels overhead.  We can see reversal zones directly above us along with some solid sell-zones starting at 95.09.  The price-wedge is a dead give-away that we will be looking for a fake-out-breakout if we make new higher-highs.  If the buyers are going to test the 95.25 on the daily chart they have some work to do first, and we will be looking for the price-reversal and the buyers to FAIL as they push higher for easy selling opportunities this morning.

Crude Oil 60-Minute:

Crude Oil 60-Minute

The hourly anchor chart shows us the bullish price-channel which tells us that waiting to buy pullbacks at the lows of this price-channel will be the high-percentage-trades this morning.  Look for a buying opportunity around 93.88 buy-zone and price-channel lows to get in at the best location.  If prices rises early this morning look for a buying opportunity above the 94.50 and beware buying directly into the symmetry sell-zone above us at 94.85 area.  We will see major resistance enter the market at that area.

Crude Oil 5-Minute:

Crude Oil 5-Minute

The London trading Session is quite narrow this morning, so we are expecting to see a breakout of this range sometime this morning, however the price-wedge is the biggest clue we get for selling the highs and buying the lows of this range in the short term, and then when we do get the breakout we are looking for a price-reversal at the 94.75 area to sell short, or a price-reversal at the 93.50 area to get long.  

06/05/13 Crude Oil Morning Prep

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Crude Oil Weekly:

Crude Oil Weekly

We are trading right in the middle of the weekly trading range.  We can see that the support at 91.96 has held for now and we have a bullish (green) candlestick that tells us we have the upside wide open as we head into Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday morning.

Crude Oil Daily:

Crude Oil Daily

The daily chart of Crude Oil tells us a valuable story this morning.  We can see the BIG doji candlestick on Tuesday has been followed by a very small-bodied candlestick for today that is well inside the range from yesterday.  This type of candlestick pattern suggests 2-sided trading as we go into a very big news event on Friday morning of this week.  This looks like traders are being cautious ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report.

Crude Oil 4-Hour:

Crude Oil 240-Minute

The 240-minute anchor chart shows us the bearish price-channel has been pushing prices incrementally-lower over the last 3 weeks.  We can see plenty of resistance overhead on this anchor chart starting with the trigger-zone at 94.14-93.59 and 95.02-94.30 overhead.  This is going to make it difficult for buyers to push prices higher this morning.  We can also see plenty of wide open space to the DOWNSIDE this morning with a big drop down to 92.84 and 91.93 support levels below us.  We will use this as a sign to be patient and wait for a selling opportunity this morning for the high-percentage-trade. 

Crude Oil 60-Minute:

Crude Oil 60-Minute

The hourly anchor chart shows us just how consolidated this price-action is right now as we go into the opening bell at 9:00am EST.  We can still see the bear price-price-channel; however we can also see trend lines drawn around the current price-action creating a price-wedge pattern.  We know that this price-wedge tells us to expect 2-sided trading, fake-out-breakouts and possibly a selling opportunity at the highs of this price-channel if the buyers try and breakout unsuccessfully.  Keep an eye on the highs of the bear price-channel around 94.58 this morning for the high-percentage-trades using the long-term trend and we will also be looking to buy the 92.84 trigger-zone support (already tested once) if prices drop to new lower-lows.

Crude Oil 5-Minute:

Crude Oil 5-Minute 

We see selling opportunities in the short term this morning at the London trading Session highs of 93.91 down to a profit-target at 93.75 and a final profit-target at 93.52 at the lows of the price-wedge.  We also see major support below us as 93.40 and know that the long-term trend is higher this morning so we will assume there will be some larger BUYING opportunities this morning.  We will be looking to sell the highs of London, while we look to enter long at the lows of the range around 93.52-93.41.  We will keep an eye on price levels of 94.40 overhead for a buyer’s target which is yesterday’s HOD.

06/04/13 Crude Oil Morning Prep; Buying the Lows of London ahead of the Opening Bell

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Marty's PIT Notes

Marty's PIT Levels

Crude Oil 15-Minute Anchor

Crude Oil 15-Minute:

We can see the price-wedge on the 15-minute chart this morning as we come off the highs of the price-wedge and trade lower this morning.  We can see a ‘hidden’ bearish price-channel as we move lower, which tells us to sell the highs of this price-channel for the high-percentage-trades on the way down.  We know that there will be a bounce off the lows of the price-channel so use that as a profit-target for selling the highs.  Look for easy profit-targets at 92.48, 92.05 and 91.78 on the way down.  I will be looking to buy the lows at 91.78 later today or tomorrow morning as soon as we get down to the lows.

Crude Oil Pit Session 

If prices happen to push higher this morning I will be looking for the fake-out-breakout above the 93.10 up to 93.34.  I will be patient to see the market personality at the highs of the bear price-channel because we know better than to buy these highs.  Look for the speed to slow down, the buyers to fail, and once we see the price-reversal at the highs we will look to enter short selling retracements on the way back down. 

Crude Oil 5-Minute VIP

Crude Oil 5-Minute:

The 5-minute VIP chart shows us the London trading Session lows have held as support and we are ALWAYS looking to buy in the price-reversal zone below the London lows.  We are bullish coming off the lows, and will use the resistance overhead at 93.04, 93.11, 93.21 and 93.27 as easy profit-targets on the way back up. 

Don’t forget, at the highs of the London trading Session we have another price-reversal zone that we will be looking to sell the highs, which happens to line up PERFECTLY with the highs of the bear price-channel we see on the 15-minute chart.  This sets the stage for an easy short-selling opportunity at 93.34 to 93.50 area.  We will have to be patient at the price-reversal zone overhead to get short, so wait for the price-reversal and then trade short with the new short-term trend.

Dollar Index 5-Minute

Dollar-Index Analysis:

We can see a short-term trend moving higher on the Dollar-Index over the last 36 hours, but that may be changing with this recent swing-low we see that has broken the lows of the price-channel.  With important news at 830am EST today we may see this Dollar-Index take off to the up-side again.  We will be watching this Dollar-Index all morning to look for clues within the Dollar-Index-correlation.

06/03/13 Crude Oil Morning Prep; Screen to Floor

Marty's PIT Session Notes

Marty's PIT Levels

Crude Oil Weekly

Crude Oil Weekly:

We begin the new week looking at the weekly chart of Crude Oil 07-13 contract.  We can see that price-action has fallen off the highs of the price-wedge and is resting at the trigger-zone support on the way to the lows of the price-wedge and buy-zone at 89.31.  We know this tells us that buying opportunities will likely be the high-percentage-trades this morning, but we need to drill-down further to see what the rest of the story tells us this morning.

Crude Oil Daily

Crude Oil Daily:

The daily chart of Crude Oil shows us much of the same this morning, with trigger-zone support holding us here just above a new daily-chart buy-zone at 91.66.  This chart reinforces the idea that buyers are in control this morning and that the sellers are going to have to work hard if they want to take that control back in Monday’s trading session.

Crude Oil 240-Minute

Crude Oil 4-Hour:

The 4-hour anchor chart shows us the bounce off the lows of this bearish price-wedge we have been watching for over 3 weeks.  We always know to look for bounces off the lows of any price-structure such as a price-wedge or price-channel, but we also know that a bearish price-channel tells us to sell the HIGHS for the high-percentage-trades and this is clearly not at the highs.  This is a big clue for us this morning because we had earlier clues that price-action may be rising higher this morning, but this tells us it may just be a short term ‘bounce’ off the lows of this price-channel and the long-term trend being bearish may indeed bring this price-action right back down to the lows this morning. 

This 240-minute chart of Crude Oil leaves the door wide open for both directions this morning, and we will need to look closely at the market personality at the open this morning to get a better feel for which direction our first trade will be today.

Crude Oil 60-Minute 

Crude Oil 60-Minute:

The hourly anchor chart tells us to be selling at these resistance levels overhead.  We saw bullish clues on the slower chart timeframes but now we’re seeing reasons to look for selling opportunities as price-action runs into the resistance at trend lines, sell-zones and trigger-zones overhead.  This 60-minute chart tells me to sell short with a profit-target down at the lows of the trading range.

Crude Oil 5-Minute

Crude Oil 5-Minute:

We look to sell the highs of the London trading Session with price-action failing to stay above the price-reversal zone on this 5-minute VIP chart.  We can see a profit-target at 92.28 and 92.07 on the way down to the runner profit-target at the lows of 91.50.  We will then look to buy the lows of the range at the London trading Session lows of 91.37.  If prices keep moving lower below 91.00 we will then resume selling short once again because we will know that the sellers are still in control, and we have profit-targets below us at 90.71, 90.29 and 89.62.

Dollar-Index Analysis:

Dollar Index 5-Minute

Dollar-Index is moving higher this morning, which further confirms our clues to sell short on Crude Oil.  There is a negative Dollar-Index-correlation with Crude Oil and many other markets and we will use this clue to look for selling opportunities when the Dollar-Index is rising, and buying opportunities if the Dollar-Index collapses back into the London trading Session range below it.