Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Crude Oil pushes lower, we look for buying opportunities


Crude Oil Daily
Crude Oil Daily:
Daily anchor chart shows us new higher-highs on Monday and this morning we have opened slightly lower with a red candlestick suggesting prices are moving off these new highs.   

On Monday we got exactly what we had expected from Crude Oil.  We knew morning that today’s price-action would be sloppy as it pushed higher, and it gave us exactly that.  We can see the 96.00 sell-zone has been removed from this chart because we got a close of the daily candlestick above the highs of that sell-zone, which leaves us with the next sell-zone at 97.02 and we have closed below this sell-zone lows so this leaves the door wide open for the sellers to push this price-action lower this morning.

Crude Oil 240-Minute
Crude Oil 4-Hour:
The 240-Minute chart shows us that price has pushed through three overhead sell-zones on its way to settle into the 97.00 big-round-number where we have more supply entering the market.  We can now see a large RED candlestick has formed most recently which tells us this is indeed a supply zone in the market.  We will expect prices to push lower on the way down to the buy-zone at 95.64.  We can also see a short term support level at 96.40 which we will use as a profit-target when selling short, with a runner profit-target at the 95.64.

Crude Oil 60-Minute
Crude Oil 60-Minute:
The hourly anchor chart shows us a BIG set of clues this morning as price-action has pushed all the way into the major price-channel reversal zone of 97.33-96.72. 
This price-reversal zone comes from that old bearish price-channel below which is marked with the A, B, and C letters on this chart.  Yes, when we break out of a price-channel we always know there is a price-reversal zone that will follow it and we will be ready to see price-action tumble off these highs and fall lower overnight or tomorrow morning.

Do you see this bullish price-channel?  Can you see the trigger-zone support at 96.40-9.18? 

We can easily see a great buying opportunity around the lows of the price-channel and the trigger-zone highs at 96.40.  If we get this price-action to fall off these highs we will look for buying opportunities at these price-channel lows and trigger-zone support.  This is a very high-percentage-trade as long as we don’t get caught buying the lows inside this price-reversal zone.  Look for this trade to set-up above or below the price-channel reversal zone.

Crude Oil 30-Minute
Crude Oil 30-Minute:
Look at these big buying clues on the 30-minute anchor chart.  The bullish price-channel tells us that we need to focus our attention on the buying opportunities at the lows. 

We can see price-action has dropped off these highs (just as we expected at the sell-zone) and now we find ourselves looking at an excellent buying opportunity at the lows of this bull price-channel.  We are looking for price-action to test the trigger-zone at 96.40 down to 96.18 for a price-reversal and a buying opportunity this morning.  I have a feeling we might get a ‘double-bounce’ off this support area because we also have the Price-channel buy-zone below us at 96.21 down to 95.67.  we expect to see the initial test of 96.40 give us an easy scalp trade long, but we will keep our stop-loss tight on the way up because we assume the sellers will try AGAIN to push lower into the price-channel buy-zone.  If price action gets down into the price-channel buy-zone we then look for the same price-reversal and using the Entry-Trigger Indicator we will get long and buy these lows of the price-channel.

Dollar Index
Dollar-Index Analysis:
The Dollar-Index is moving higher this morning in a lovely bullish price-channel on its way into the double-bottom sell-zone overhead from 84.215 up to 84.325.  After see the double-bottom we know the sellers tried twice and failed both times, giving us a bullish move off these lows from Monday and sending us into a price-reversal zone above us. 

Look closely and you can see how the Dollar-Index chart confirms exactly what we had discussed earlier in this post.  We expect Crude Oil to fall into the lows of the price-channel, and with the Dollar-Index pushing higher we can expect exactly that.  Once the Dollar-Index gives us a price-reversal and starts to move lower around the 84.325 we then have the perfect buying opportunity on Crude Oil using the negative Dollar-Index-correlation we always look for.  This Dollar-Index is giving us a lot of confidence in our day trading plan this morning!

Euro
Euro Currency Futures Analysis:
The Euro is moving lower this morning, which is a good confirmation on the lower prices of Crude Oil this morning along with the rising prices on the Dollar-Index.  We can see the Euro approaching the PLOD which is considered support while the Dollar-Index approaches the price-reversal zone at the same time. 

Aussie Dollar Currency Futures:
aussie dollar
The Aussie is in the same situation as the Euro this morning.  We see lower-lows and lower-highs on the way below the PHOD which is a bearish market sentiment with a short-selling target of the PLOD 0.9733 on the way down which tells us there is plenty of room to keep moving lower this morning.



Crude Oil 5-Minute Chart

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