Crude Oil trades in sideways, 2-sided market personality ahead of Month-End

Crude Oil Weekly

Crude Oil Weekly:

The weekly chart of Crude Oil tells us we’re trading in the middle of a very wide trading range that tested both the highs of the price-wedge and the trigger-zone support below it.  This 2-sided market personality during this week will most likely continue into the end of the month this morning so be aware that sideways-trading-ranges will be key to our success in the live trade-room.

Marty's Price Levels

Crude Oil Daily

Crude Oil Daily:

The daily chart tells us a BIG clue this morning.  With a test of the highs on Tuesday this week, followed by a big gap down on Thursday morning, followed by bullish price-action that filled that gap, we are now expecting prices to keep rising in the long term this morning.  We expected to see rising prices earlier this morning however we can see the sellers have taken short-term control so we will wait to get long near the lows of this trading range.

Crude Oil 240-Minute

Crude Oil 4-Hour:

The 4-hour chart shows us the bear price-channel, along with a buying opportunity at the support levels below us.  The bear price-channel tells us to sell the highs as resistance so we will be looking around the 95.00 area for the price-reversal at the highs and the selling opportunity this morning.  We will need to be very patient to wait for this selling opportunity at the highs, and it looks like buying the support at 91.76 will be our high-percentage-trade in the buy-zone.

Crude Oil 60-Minute

Crude Oil 60-Minute:

The hourly chart of Crude Oil tells us to stay patient this morning.  With support below at 92.82 and resistance above at 93.44 and 93.79 we know that trading NOW will be a little difficult so it is wise for us to wait to sell the highs and buy the lows of this trading range, rather that trying to PREDICT when this price-action will breakout.

The Plan Today:

Crude oil 5-Minute

The plan this morning is to buy lows and sell highs.  We can assume that the clues from the daily chart say that buying the lows will likely be the high-percentage-trades but the fact that today is the end of the month tells us historically Crude Oil Futures will sell-off near the end of the month, so this tells us to be ready for ANYTHING this morning.  We have many levels of resistance overhead and support below and we will use these price levels to look for a price-reversal and a buying or selling opportunity this morning.  We do not predict, we only react to what we see, so stay patient this morning and let’s make some money!

Buying Opportunities on Crude Oil Futures

Crude Oil 5-Minute

We are looking for buying opportunities this morning using any of the price reversal levels below us.  

Read the complete review here.

Crude Oil shows 2-sided trading ahead of Opening Bell

Crude Oil Weekly

Crude Oil Weekly:

Weekly anchor chart shows us that prices have tested the highs of the price-wedge and pulled off those highs.  The big wick on this week’s candlestick tells us that prices have moved higher, but failed to stay at those highs, and the green color of the candle reminds us that we opened this week lower than we are at this time. 

Both of these clues tell us this price-action continues to be 2-sided, with a slight bullish tone going into Wednesday’s trading session in the US.

Crude Oil Daily

Crude Oil Daily:

Daily anchor chart shows us exactly what we assumed from the weekly chart.  We jumped up to the highs of the price-wedge early this week, but have since pulled off those highs.  A very interesting aspect to the most recent daily candlestick is the wick at the bottom of the candle, which suggests that prices tried to move lower, but got pulled back higher. 

We continue to see signs of 2-sided market personality on this daily chart.

Crude Oil 4-Hour

Crude Oil 4-Hour:

The 240-Minute chart shows us two big clues this morning.  First, we can see price-action trading around the lows of the price-wedge.  We are reminded to buy the lows and sell the highs of a price-wedge, so we know there will be buying opportunities at these lows. 

Second, we can see that the 4-hour candlesticks could NOT close above the highs of the trigger-zone at 95.78.  This clue tells us the buyers tried and failed, and the trigger-zone is definite resistance in the market, so look for selling opportunities at the trigger-zone.  

Once again we see signs of 2-sided trading this morning as we head into the opening bell.

Crude Oil 60-minute

Crude Oil 60-Minute:

The hourly anchor chart shows us trading at the lows of the bullish price-wedge with a buy-zone below us at 94.40 down to 94.14.  We look for buying opportunities at the lows of any range, so this morning we know the high-percentage-trades will occur to the LONG side.  We can also see two trigger-zones overhead this morning.  

First, we draw our Fibonacci retracement from the 97.34 highs down to the 92.21 lows to get the trigger-zone from 95.38 to 94.78 and we can see that buyers indeed tried to break this resistance but they failed.  We also see the short term trigger-zone above us at 95.24 to 95.03, which tells us that we need to take profit at the 95.03 if we get long at the lows of the price-wedge, and to look for another price-reversal inside the trigger-zone for a possible short trade later in today’s session. 

Crude Oil 5-Minute

We know that a 5-Minute candle close above the 95.03 will be very bullish, and a 5-Minute candle close above the 95.38 will mean the buyers are now back in control, however we have a very difficult time buying into the highs of the price-wedge so we will be looking for selling opportunities at the highs of this price-wedge.

Crude Oil Rises HIgher, We look for price reversal and selling opportunities short term

Crude Oil Weekly

Crude Oil Weekly:

Crude Oil weekly shows us bullish market sentiment this morning as we open up a new weekly candlestick.  We thought the sellers may have the buyers beat late last week as we came off the highs of the price-wedge but that seller-control didn’t last very long as we head back higher this morning in a hunt for a re-test of the highs again.

Crude Oil Daily

Crude Oil Daily:

The daily chart shows us that the trigger-zone support has held below us overnight, and EXACTLY as we called on our newsletter last night we saw buying opportunities overnight and early this morning on Crude Oil Futures.  We will expect to see more rising prices this week as we re-test the highs of the price-wedge.

Crude Oil 4-Hour

Crude Oil 4-Hour:

The 240-minute chart shows us the large move off the lows of the short term price-wedge and into the trigger-zone resistance at 95.78 – 94.78.  This is a big clue for us this morning, telling us that we have missed the buying opportunity overnight from the lows, and now we need to sit-on-hands and wait to see what happens next.  First, if we close ABOVE the 95.78 we can assume the buyers are still in control and we will be buying pullbacks as well.  Second, if these buyers fail to close and stay above the 95.78 we will look for selling opportunities to take this price-action back down to the price-wedge lows at 94.00 areas.  This 4-hour chart shows us both buying and selling opportunities this morning we will use to make educated trading decisions.

Crude Oil 60-Minute

The Plan Today:

The day trading plan this morning is to sell the highs of the price-wedge on the 60-minute chart, and use the London trading Session as our biggest clue this morning to look for a price-reversal and a selling opportunity early in the trading session today.  

Crude Oil 5-Minute

We know that prices are moving higher, but we also know that prices cant keep moving like this forever.  We will be looking for clues above the 95.78 to begin buying this morning, and in the meantime we are looking for the buyers to fail and the sellers to grab hold for a selling opportunity this morning.  I will use the trigger-zone support and the London session lows as my selling profit-target on the way back down.

Crude Oil Day trading plan for today:

Crude Oil PIT Session OHLC

This morning we have Ben Bernanke on the stand to speak about the conditions of the economy and we KNOW that many traders will be listening for hidden clues in what he DOES NOT say this morning.  We have Crude Oil Inventories this morning at 1030am EST which means we need to expect 2-sided trading until we get through this news this morning.  We have had NO market personality this week so far so this morning is going to have some surprises we have a feeling, so we will be ready to sell highs at resistance and buy lows at support using the 2-sided market personality as our biggest clue.

CLICK HERE TO VIEW ALL OF TODAY'S CRUDE OIL CHARTS

Crude Oil pushes lower, we look for buying opportunities

Crude Oil Daily

Crude Oil Daily:

Daily anchor chart shows us new higher-highs on Monday and this morning we have opened slightly lower with a red candlestick suggesting prices are moving off these new highs.   

On Monday we got exactly what we had expected from Crude Oil.  We knew morning that today’s price-action would be sloppy as it pushed higher, and it gave us exactly that.  We can see the 96.00 sell-zone has been removed from this chart because we got a close of the daily candlestick above the highs of that sell-zone, which leaves us with the next sell-zone at 97.02 and we have closed below this sell-zone lows so this leaves the door wide open for the sellers to push this price-action lower this morning.

Crude Oil 240-Minute

Crude Oil 4-Hour:

The 240-Minute chart shows us that price has pushed through three overhead sell-zones on its way to settle into the 97.00 big-round-number where we have more supply entering the market.  We can now see a large RED candlestick has formed most recently which tells us this is indeed a supply zone in the market.  We will expect prices to push lower on the way down to the buy-zone at 95.64.  We can also see a short term support level at 96.40 which we will use as a profit-target when selling short, with a runner profit-target at the 95.64.

Crude Oil 60-Minute

Crude Oil 60-Minute:

The hourly anchor chart shows us a BIG set of clues this morning as price-action has pushed all the way into the major price-channel reversal zone of 97.33-96.72. 

This price-reversal zone comes from that old bearish price-channel below which is marked with the A, B, and C letters on this chart.  Yes, when we break out of a price-channel we always know there is a price-reversal zone that will follow it and we will be ready to see price-action tumble off these highs and fall lower overnight or tomorrow morning.

Do you see this bullish price-channel?  Can you see the trigger-zone support at 96.40-9.18? 

We can easily see a great buying opportunity around the lows of the price-channel and the trigger-zone highs at 96.40.  If we get this price-action to fall off these highs we will look for buying opportunities at these price-channel lows and trigger-zone support.  This is a very high-percentage-trade as long as we don’t get caught buying the lows inside this price-reversal zone.  Look for this trade to set-up above or below the price-channel reversal zone.

Crude Oil 30-Minute

Crude Oil 30-Minute:

Look at these big buying clues on the 30-minute anchor chart.  The bullish price-channel tells us that we need to focus our attention on the buying opportunities at the lows. 

We can see price-action has dropped off these highs (just as we expected at the sell-zone) and now we find ourselves looking at an excellent buying opportunity at the lows of this bull price-channel.  We are looking for price-action to test the trigger-zone at 96.40 down to 96.18 for a price-reversal and a buying opportunity this morning.  I have a feeling we might get a ‘double-bounce’ off this support area because we also have the Price-channel buy-zone below us at 96.21 down to 95.67.  we expect to see the initial test of 96.40 give us an easy scalp trade long, but we will keep our stop-loss tight on the way up because we assume the sellers will try AGAIN to push lower into the price-channel buy-zone.  If price action gets down into the price-channel buy-zone we then look for the same price-reversal and using the Entry-Trigger Indicator we will get long and buy these lows of the price-channel.

Dollar Index

Dollar-Index Analysis:

The Dollar-Index is moving higher this morning in a lovely bullish price-channel on its way into the double-bottom sell-zone overhead from 84.215 up to 84.325.  After see the double-bottom we know the sellers tried twice and failed both times, giving us a bullish move off these lows from Monday and sending us into a price-reversal zone above us. 

Look closely and you can see how the Dollar-Index chart confirms exactly what we had discussed earlier in this post.  We expect Crude Oil to fall into the lows of the price-channel, and with the Dollar-Index pushing higher we can expect exactly that.  Once the Dollar-Index gives us a price-reversal and starts to move lower around the 84.325 we then have the perfect buying opportunity on Crude Oil using the negative Dollar-Index-correlation we always look for.  This Dollar-Index is giving us a lot of confidence in our day trading plan this morning!

Euro

Euro Currency Futures Analysis:

The Euro is moving lower this morning, which is a good confirmation on the lower prices of Crude Oil this morning along with the rising prices on the Dollar-Index.  We can see the Euro approaching the PLOD which is considered support while the Dollar-Index approaches the price-reversal zone at the same time. 

Aussie Dollar Currency Futures:

aussie dollar

The Aussie is in the same situation as the Euro this morning.  We see lower-lows and lower-highs on the way below the PHOD which is a bearish market sentiment with a short-selling target of the PLOD 0.9733 on the way down which tells us there is plenty of room to keep moving lower this morning.

Crude Oil 5-Minute Chart

Crude Oil Morning Prep; Screen to Floor 05/20/13

Crude Oil Weekly

Crude Oil Weekly:

Weekly anchor chart confirms that we indeed closed at the highs of the week last week, showing clear signals that the buyers are trying to push this price-action higher into the 96.97 sell-zone overhead. 

Crude Oil Daily

Crude Oil Daily:

Daily anchor chart shows us the sell-zone at 96.00 is still in the picture because we have NOT closed a candlestick above the highs of 96.77.  This sell-zone will be key supply early in the week.  Will the buyers have too much demand for the sellers?  We have plenty of room for this price-action to fall off these highs, and we will be looking for a close of Monday’s daily candle below 96.00 for a bearish signal, and a close above the 90.77 for a bullish signal.

Crude Oil 4-Hour

Crude Oil 4-Hour:

The 240-Minute chart shows us a very similar sell-zone at 96.15 and a short term buy-zone at 95.00.  We’ve moved off the highs of this price-wedge and we are looking for selling opportunities if this continues lower. 

We know that Crude Oil loves to move in one dollar increments, which means a failure at 96.00 would result in the sellers taking it back down to 95.00 with ease.  We know there are a few sell-zones overhead for the sellers to worry about, and if they fail we will be looking for a 4-hour candle to close below 96.00 so we can look to get short down to 95.00.  If we see a close above the 95.50 we will then know these buyers are in control and we will expect a test of 96.65 and possibly 97.00 early in the week ahead.

Crude Oil 60-Minute:

Crude Oil 60-Minute

The hourly anchor chart of Crude Oil shows us a sideways-trading-range this morning, and with today being re-balancing Monday without any major news on the calendar we will expect this morning’s trading to be very 2-sided.  When we see a sideways-trading-range we know right away that buying the lows and selling the highs are the high-percentage-trades and we need to watch for a fake-out-breakout with new higher-highs or lower-lows.  Look for selling opportunities around the 96.23 highs, and buying opportunities around the 95.00 lows of the range.  We also need to beware trading in the middle of the range, which means we need to sit-on-hands for the short term this morning until we test the edges of this range.

Dollar-Index Analysis:

Dollar Index 5-Minute

We can see the Dollar-Index is moving lower overnight and as we head into the opening of the US morning-session we see the Dollar-Index has a moving-average cross to signal that the sellers may have exhausted and this price-action MAY be headed higher.  With this long-term trend being bullish (price-channel) and the short term being bearish we will expect to see prices continue to fall this morning, but we know that the long-term trend is still moving this price-action higher so keep an eye on a jump to the up-side.  We use the Dollar-Index’s negative correlation to help us anticipate the high-percentage-trades this morning.  With the Dollar-Index moving LOWER we should Crude Oil Futures (among many others) moving higher.

The Plan Today:

Crude Oil 5-Minute

We see a sideways-trading-range on most of the anchor charts, and the 5-minute chart shows us both buying and selling opportunities this morning.  We know today does NOT have any major economic news and today is considered re-balancing Monday so we know this morning will be difficult to nail down as far as where this price-action wants to go in the long-term trend. 

Our plan this morning is to sell the highs of the ranges and buy the lows of the ranges considering we see a sideways-trading-range on the 4-hour, and we find important selling opportunities at the 96.00 big-round-number, 96.35 and 96.45 areas as prices rise higher.  If prices fall lower this morning we look for buying opportunities at 95.35 and the 95.00 big-round-number.  

Crude Oil Morning Prep; short term selling and long term buying opportunities

Crude Oil daily

Crude Oil Daily:

Our daily anchor chart shows signs of buying pressure this morning with a big green candlestick headed higher to test the sell-zone at 96.00.  We know that this week has been 2-sided and today is OPEX Friday so we know that anything can still happen this morning, but this is certainly a bullish clue to get us started today.

Crude Oil 240-Minute

Crude Oil 4-Hour:

The 240-minute chart of Crude Oil shows only a minor pullback before this most recent move higher into the sell-zone at 95.65 this morning.  We have plenty of supply entering the market around the big-round-number of 96.00 so we will be looking for the buyers to fail and a selling opportunity to go back lower later this morning.  We also must note that there is a trend line above us which has NOT been tested yet this week.  We can assume the buyers are going to be shooting for this trend line, so we will stay patient and wait for a selling opportunity either in the sell-zone or at the trend line resistance. 

Crude Oil 60-Minute

Crude Oil 60-Minute:

The hourly anchor chart shows just how far we've come since earlier this week, including that we've broken the highs of a bear price-channel and pushing into the trend lines above it.  The bear price-channel reminds us that this price-action can collapse at any time this morning, and we've projected a price-reversal zone above us at 96.72 which will be an excellent location to look for the high-percentage shorts later today or early next week. 

This recent higher-high is a very bullish clue so we can expect to see the buyers keep trying to push this price-action higher this morning, which we will be watching closely for signs of a price-reversal and a selling opportunity. 

Crude Oil 5-Minute

The Plan Today:

The day trading plan this will use the London trading Session as our biggest short term clue.  We can see that price-action has traded up to the highs of the London trading Session and we've now seen price-action fall off these highs, which we will take as a selling opportunity to get short.  Our profit-target for the short trade will be 95.29 and 95.00 near the price-channel support.  Ideally, we would sell the highs of this range and take profit all the way at the lows around 94.79 but this morning we have a trend line (price-channel) to worry about, and considering it’s a Friday we will be taking our profit a little earlier than other days of the week.

If price-action pushes higher this morning look for a price-reversal all the way as high as 96.06 but a 5-Minute candle close above 96.06 and we now look to keep pushing higher this morning.  I would expect price-action to move lower in the short term, and I will be watching closely for the test of the 95.29 and a strong price-reversal to take this price-action back higher to test the levels we found above us at 96.23, 96.41, and 96.79.

Crude Oil Morning Prep; Screen to Floor 05/16/13

 Crude Oil Daily:

Crude Oil Daily

The Daily chart of Crude Oil shows us the big drop over the last 2 days and this morning we have ‘bounced’ higher off the trigger-zone support at 92.65.  As we’ve said all week, a daily candlestick closing below 92.65 will signal the sellers are in control and price-action will trade lower to 90.53.

Crude Oil 4-hour

The most important thing this daily anchor chart shows us is the wide open space to the up-side and the support to the downside.  We know the door is wide open for the buyers to bring this price-action all the way back up as we go to OPEX Friday.  We also know that the sellers are going to have to work very hard to break to new lower-lows and KEEP those lows.

Crude Oil 60-Minute:

Crude Oil 60-Minute

The hourly anchor on Crude Oil shows us trading in a strong bearish price-channel and we know this is telling us to sell the highs of this price-channel for the high-percentage-trades this morning.  If prices rise this morning we will sell short at the highs of the price-channel and if prices can push up to 94.29 or 94.44 we will also look for selling opportunities there as well.  We know the high-percentage-trades occur selling the resistance around the highs of the price-channel so that is where we are looking this morning.

The Plan Today:

The day trading plan this morning on Crude Oil is to trade higher up to 94.23 (see 5-minute chart) and then we will look for clues from market personality to see if the buyers want to keep pushing higher up to the 94.44 level (also the PHOD) or if the buyers are going to exhaust and move back lower once they test 94.23.  we expect prices to rise in the short term, most likely to 94.23 and then show us a price-reversal for a selling opportunity back down.  We may also see prices keep going higher, and if they make it above (and stay above) the 94.44 we know the buyers will be in full control and we will be buying pullbacks on the way higher.

Crude Oil 5-Minute

Also remember that at any moment this price-action can reverse on us because we all know the market personality of Crude Oil can change in a split-second.  With 3 major news events at 8:30am EST this morning we know that this price-action may get very interesting today as we head into the opening bell at 9:00am EST.

Crude Oil Morning Prep; Screen to Floor Broadcast

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Crude Oil Daily 

 Crude Oil Daily:

This morning we can see this big, full-bodied bearish daily candlestick is telling the sellers are in full control after failing at the highs of the price-wedge.  We’ve been watching the sellers gradually take control over this price-action over the last 3 days and this morning we have an easy clue to be looking for selling opportunities.

Key price levels we see on the daily anchor chart are 93.44 and 92.65.  a Daily candle close above 93.44 will be bullish, and a close below 92.65 is considered bearish.

Crude Oil 4-Hour:

Crude Oil 240-Minute

The 240-minute anchor chart paints a very similar picture as the daily chart.  We can see the strong bearish candlesticks have pushed prices lower into the trigger-zone support from last week.  Its important we notice the lows of the bear price-channel will act as support and the key price levels on this chart are 92.79 and 91.48.  a 4-hour candle close below 92.79 and we can expect to see prices move lower to 91.48.  a 4-hour close above the 92.79 will leave the door wide open for a price-reversal and rising prices back up into the range above us.

Crude Oil 60-Minute:

Crude Oil 60-Minute

The hourly anchor chart shows us two bearish price-channels and we’re trading at the lows of the wider price-channel.  This price-channel will act as support so we do expect to see a bounce higher off these lows, but the sellers may be too strong and lower prices will continue.  We can’t help but notice that we have a wide open space below the price-channel all the way down to the 91.47 buy-zone below it.  This tells us that we may get some easy selling opportunities (long term) with the sellers in control this morning, but we will still be looking for a price-reversal and buying opportunities (short term) to the up-side.

The Plan Today:

Crude Oil 5-Minute

We've tested the lows of the anchor-chart price-channel and the London trading Session lows.  We’re trading inside the price-reversal zone at the lows so we’re expecting to see a short term buying opportunity above the 93.09 level with a profit-target at 93.40 and a runner profit-target back at the London trading Session highs around 94.00.  Look for a possible failure to rise higher, and if that occurs we look to get short with a 5-Minute candle close below 92.86 with a profit-target short at 92.65 and 92.10.

Crude Oil Morning Prep; Screen to Floor Broadcast

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 Crude Oil Daily:

Crude Oil Daily Chart

The daily anchor chart of Crude Oil shows us BIG WICKS to the last 2 daily candlesticks.  Last night we looked at the big wick on the bottom of the candle, and this morning we can see the wick is on the top.  This morning we can use this clue to tell us that the sellers have taken control of the price-action as we head into the morning trading session on Crude Oil.

Crude Oil 4-Hour:

Crude Oil 4-Hour Chart

The 240-Minute anchor chart shows us the big drop in prices overnight and it appears we will attempt a test of the price-wedge lows around 94.50 first, and we will look for clues for a price-reversal back up or the sellers pushing prices lower to 93.78.  We know for sure that we are looking for buying opportunities at the price-wedge lows or the 93.78, now we just need to wait and see where we get the price-reversal.

Crude Oil 60-Minute:

Crude Oil 60-Minute Chart

The hourly anchor chart of Crude Oil shows us pushing lower into the 94.62 buy-zone which will act as ‘demand’ in the market this morning.  We are looking for a price-reversal around this area today, however, if we get a 5-Minute candle close below the 94.47 we will then start looking for selling opportunities as we push lower to test the lows of this bear price-channel.  We can see the big-round-number of 94.00 below us around those price-channel lows and we will use that as our selling profit-target this morning. 

We’re looking to get long with a price-reversal at 94.62 and take profit at 95.09 and 95.50 where we expect to see another price-reversal and a return back to the downside again.  

Looking for Price Reversal and Selling Opportunities Crude Oil Morning Prep

Crude Oil 240-Minute

Crude Oil 4-Hour:

The 4-hour anchor chart this morning tells us exactly what the market personality will be going into today’s US trading session.  We can see the big drop in prices on Friday were followed by a big pop right back up.  We can see 2 important clues from the advanced price-structures on this chart.  First, we can see the bearish price-channel which tells us that selling at resistance will be the high-percentage-trades in today’s session.  Second, we can see the price-wedge tells us there have been lower-highs and higher-lows as price-action has been 2-sided trading over the last 2 weeks.  This sideways-trading-range over the last few weeks has been a big clue for overall market personality and we will use that to make educated trading decisions this morning.

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Crude Oil 60-Minute

Crude Oil 60-Minute:

The hourly anchor chart shows us another short term bearish price-channel along with some easy selling price levels overhead, starting at 96.00, 96.23 and 96.65.  As prices move higher this morning we are staying patient to sell short at these resistance levels overhead.  Ideally we would love to have a short-selling opportunity at the highs of the 60-minute bear price-channel, but Crude Oil may go higher to a resistance level overhead before it collapses.  Either way we look at it, we are looking to sell the resistance levels overhead on Crude Oil and we need to wait patiently to see where the price-reversal occurs and then trade lower with the new trend headed back down.

Crude Oil Morning Prep; Screen to Floor 05/10/13

Crude Oil Overnight 4-Hour

Crude Oil 4-Hour:

We can see the 4-hour anchor chart has closed below the 95.35 buy-zone and we are expecting this price-action to test the 94.27 buy-zone next on the way down.  We will be selling short using the Entry-Trigger Indicator on the way down to a profit-target at 94.27.  We will look for the price-reversal in the buy-zone below us for short term buying opportunities on the way back up.

PIT Session Chart

Looking at the PIT Session Levels we can see a clear price wedge structure and the Floor Traders will be looking for an opening print BELOW the 94.85 to get selling short this morning.

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