12/25/2012 Holiday Update:
All of us here at CrudeSquawk would like to take a moment to wish everyone a safe and happy Holiday Season. We will be resuming our normal broadcast schedule on January 2nd 2013!
Tuesday, December 25, 2012
Thursday, December 20, 2012
12/20/2012 Update:
Wednesdays Crude Pit Session:
High: 90.33
Low: 88.65
Settle:
90.00
Looking
ahead to today’s crude pit session:
Crude oil
prices pushed up to new highs after yesterdays DOE inventory levels came in
close to the expected .09m barrel draw. (Actual
1.0m) making pit session highs at 90.33 and settling at 90.00. With continued downward pressure on the
dollar we could possibly see oil trader’s push prices up into the 91-92
handle. However, we may chop around this area today ahead Washington’s
vote on John Boehner’s plan to raise taxes on incomes over 1 million in an
attempt to avoid the fiscal cliff.
Levels:
Support: 90.00,
89.40, 89.00, 88.65, 88.47, 88.27, 88.00, 87.34, 85.28
Resistance: 90.33, 90.53, 90.90, 91.46, 92.00, 92.50,
93.00, 93.52
Wednesdays Natural Gas Pit Session:
High: 3.356
Low: 3.284
Close / Settle:
3.321
Today’s
Natural Gas pit session:
Natural gas
continued to trade lower yesterday after gapping down in the previous overnight
session. Analyst are forecasting a -73
BCU draw in inventories due out at 1030am today. If this number comes in lower we may see
traders push prices back to the top of the range. However, any type of build in inventories may
continue to push prices to the downside. Traders are looking to 3.260 and 3.200
as major levels of support.
Tune in this
morning to hear a full Analysis and pit commentary.
Levels:
Support: 3.347, 3.321,
3.284, 3.260, 3.200
Resistance: 3.397,
3.411, 3.450, 3.477, 3.500
Wednesday, December 19, 2012
12/19/2012 Update:
Tuesday’s Crude Pit Session:
High: 88.63
Low: 87.68
Settle:
88.35
Looking
ahead to today’s crude pit session:
Last night’s
API report shows that crude oil inventories were down -4.1M barrels, gasoline
supplies up +4.2M barrels and distillates, including diesel fuel and heating
oil were also down -4.2M barrels.
Today’s 1030am DOE inventory report is forecasting a -900,000M barrel
draw in crude oil inventories and a build in gasoline and in distillate
supplies. Using last night’s API report
as a leading indicator, we may see Crude DOE inventories come in lower than forecasted
possibly putting upward pressure on Crude oil prices as have already seen in
last night’s Globex session.
Levels:
Support: 88.63,
88.53, 88.21, 87.79, 87.60, 87.26, 87.26
Resistance: 89.16, 89.50, 90.00, 90.11, 90.61, 91.00
Tuesdays’s Natural Gas Pit
Session:
High: 3.450
Low: 3.372
Close / Settle:
3.415
Today’s
Natural Gas pit session:
We saw
natural gas traders sell the 3.450 level pretty heavy yesterday making session
lows at 3.372. This may be a bearish
indication that prices will continue to fall.
However, we are seeing some weather patterns forming in the USA that may
put upward pressure on prices ahead of tomorrow’s 1030am inventory number.
Tune in this
morning to hear a full Analysis and pit commentary.
Levels:
Support: 3.334,
3.317, 3.288, 3.278
Resistance: 3.345,
3.372, 3.392, 3.450
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
12/18/2012 Update:
Mondays Crude Pit Session:
(jan)
High: 87.71
Low: 87.13
Settle: 86.70
Looking ahead to today’s crude pit session:
Although we saw crude oil prices trade at its highest since Early December we saw little participation from the pits as many traders and locals have closed out there books for the year. (1,451 in open outcry volume) We do expect to see better volume today as we roll to the February front month and it appears that Washington is getting closer to making a fiscal cliff deal. However, we do not expect to see crude oil traders push us out of this 85.00-90.00 range for the rest of the year. We will be keeping a close eye on Multiple Market Divergence with Heating Oil and RBOB as well as preparing for API numbers due out tonight ahead of tomorrow’s DOE inventory numbers that are currently forecasting a draw of 900,000 barrels.
Levels: (Feb)
Support: 88.13, 87.67, 87.15, 87.00, 86.70
Resistance: 88.30, 88.65, 89.00, 89.63, 90.00
Monday, December 17, 2012
12/17/2012 Update:
Fridays’ Crude Pit Session:
High: 86.88
Low: 86.05
Settle:
86.75
Looking
ahead to today’s crude pit session:
Crude oil
traded in a very tight .88 cent range during Fridays pit session as Jan options
expired. We did see crude push up into the
87 during the Globex session with the release of better than expected economic
data out of China and ongoing supply concerns out of the Middle East. We are expecting to see crude chop in a
tight range today as Crude Oil Traders wrap up their year and/or sit on the
side lines waiting for news out of Washington regarding the Fiscal Cliff.
Tune in this
morning to hear a full analysis and pit commentary.
Levels:
Support:
86.50, 86.12, 86.05, 85.50, 85,00, 84.50
Resistance: 86.72, 86.92, 87.00, 87.18, 87.88, 88.00,
89.00
Friday, December 14, 2012
12/14/2012 Update:
Thursday’s Crude Pit Session:
High: 86.97
Low: 85.91
Settle:
85.90
Looking
ahead to today’s crude pit session:
We saw very low volume traded during Thursdays pit session, with
only 4,829 open outcry total contracts traded.
Although we saw Dollar future trade up
almost 100 points, crude only traded within a 1.16 range. Crude Oil traders moved the market based solely
on supply and demand on the heels of yesterdays FOMC decision. We did see 500 Feb 90 Puts and over 500 Feb
80-8150 Puts traded in the options pits.
The trade of the day in the options pit was the Jan 85.50 to 87.50
straddle as energy traders prepared for options to expire at the end of Globex
Trading Session. Traders will be keeping
a close eye on news out of Washington regarding the fiscal cliff that continues
to threaten economic growth and fuel demand.
Levels:
Support:
86.14, 86.00, 85.91, 85.28, 84.12
Resistance: 86.97, 87.07, 87.60, 87.68, 88.76
Thursday, December 13, 2012
12/13/2012 Update:
Wendsday’s Crude Pit Session:
High: 87.69
Low: 86.06
Settle: 86.79
Looking ahead to today’s crude pit session:
We saw crude oil prices rise and make weekly highs despite the DOE reporting a higher than expected build in Crude +.08M, Gasoline +5.0M and Distillates +3.3 million barrels. OPEC also announces that it would keep oil production target unchanged at 30 million barrels per day. Crude oil traders would normally react bearishly to builds in inventory and production reports, however, the FOMC announced it was continuing and expanding its monetary stimulus driving prices to the highs at 87.69. This bullish push was short lived as lawmakers announced there were “some serious differences” between Republicans and Democrats on how to avoid the looming fiscal cliff that threatens to slow economic growth and fuel demand. We will need to keep a close eye on news out of Washington today on this issue as well as our 830 unemployment claims forecasted at 368K.
Levels:
Support: 86.06, 85.78, 85.22, 84.50, 83.60
Resistance: 86.84, 87.69, 88.46, 90.08
Wendsdays’s Natural Gas Pit Session:
High: 3.439
Low: 3.366
Close / Settle: 3.384
Today’s Natural Gas pit session:
Natural gas traded in a relatively tight range yesterday ahead of today inventory report which is forecasting a -4 BCF draw. We will need to keep a close eye on this inventory actual number to determine if traders will continue pushing prices lower to our major next major area of support at the 3.350 and 3.200 levels.
Tune in this morning to hear a full Analysis and pit commentary.
Levels:
Support: 3.366, 3.350, 3.335, 3.200
Resistance: 3.396, 3.425, 3.439, 3.458
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
12/12/2012 Update:
Tuesday’s Crude Pit Session:
High: 85.95
Low: 85.21
Settle:
85.76
Looking
ahead to today’s crude pit session:
Last night’s
API report shows that crude oil inventories were up 4.3M barrels, gasoline
supplies up +2.8M barrels and distillates, including diesel fuel and heating
oil also increased by 2.2M barrels.
Today’s 1030am DOE inventory report is forecasting a -2.6m barrel draw
in crude oil inventories and a rise in gasoline and distillate supplies. Using last night’s API report as a leading
indicator, we may see Crude DOE inventories come in higher than the forecasted
possibly putting downward pressure on crude oil prices. We also need to keep a close eye on today’s
OPEC meeting in Vienna as any changes in output production may dramatically
impact crude oil prices.
Levels:
Support:
86.07, 85.78, 85.64 85.33, 85.21, 84.90, 84.50, 84.16
Resistance: 86.37, 87.12, 87.64, 88.00, 88.50, 89.00
Tuesdays’s Natural Gas Pit
Session:
High: 3.473
Low: 3.931
Close / Settle:
3.410
Today’s
Natural Gas pit session:
We closed and settled yesterday again below the key 3.520
support area. We also failed to break
Mondays pit session highs of 3.473. This
is a bearish indication that natural gas prices may continue to fall ahead of tomorrow’s
inventory report which is forecasting a -4 BCF draw. Traders are looking at the 3.350 and 3.200 to
be our nest major levels of support.
Tune in this
morning to hear a full Analysis and pit commentary.
Levels:
Support: 3.391, 3.350,
3.335, 3.200
Resistance: 3.428, 3.451, 3.473, 3.486, 3.509
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
12/11/2012 Update:
Monday’s Crude Pit Session:
High: 86.65
Low: 85.33
Settle: 85.59
Looking ahead to today’s crude pit session:
We saw crude oil prices chop in a very tight range yesterday until finally falling to the 85.33 support level. We need to keep a close eye on tonight’s API report to give us some insight into tomorrow’s 1030am DOE inventory report which is forecasting a -2.6M barrel draw. A larger than expected draw combined with increased factory production in China and positive economic news out Germany may push prices higher. We may see Crude oil continue to trade in its current range today ahead of this DOE Report or unless we hear news out of Washington regarding the fiscal cliff. Crude oil traders are still looking at 84 to 84.50 to be our major support area.
We will also be keeping a close eye on OPEC meeting in Vienna, Austria and this week’s FOMC meetings
Tune in this morning to hear a full analysis and pit commentary.
Levels:
Support: 85.86, 85.59, 85.33, 85.00, 84.54
Resistance: 86.38, 86.65, 86.78, 87.18, 88.00, 88.50
Monday’s Natural Gas Pit Session:
High: 3.473
Low: 3.415
Close / Settle: 3.464
Today’s Natural Gas pit session:
We closed and settled yesterday below the key 3.520 support area. This could be a bearish indication that energy traders will continue to push prices down to the next major support areas at the 3.350 and 3.200 levels. This overall bearish sentiment is being driven by high inventory levels combined with warmer than usual weather patterns in the US.
Tune in this morning to hear a full Analysis and pit commentary.
Levels:
Support: 3.454, 3.415 3.389, 3.350, 3.200
Resistance: 3.494, 3.504, 3.559, 3.664
Monday, December 10, 2012
12/10/2012 Update:
Fridays Crude Pit Session:
High: 86.74
Low: 85.88
Settle: 85.83
Looking ahead to today’s crude pit session:
On Friday we saw Crude oil prices trade sideways after non-farm unemployment figures came out a touch higher than expected. In the week ahead, we may see Crude oil continue to trade in its current range and/or chop around this area. Unless we hear news out of Washington regarding the fiscal cliff we are not anticipating any large moves in prices. Crude oil traders are still looking at 84 to 84.50 to be our major support area. We will also be keeping a close eye mind on this week’s OPEC meeting in Vienna, Austria.
On the fundamental side of crude: we have to keep our eye on the heating oil as prices may decline. This is due to lesser then expected jet fuel buying and increasing inventories. That said, we will be keeping a close eye on the swap spreads for both heating oil and crude.
Levels:
Support: 86.16, 85.70, 85.50, 84.50
Resistance: 86.92, 87.10, 88.57, 89.00
Fridays Natural Gas Pit Session:
High: 3.684
Low: 3.546
Close / Settle: 3.550
Today’s Natural Gas pit session:
Natural Gas has been continuing to pull back off the lower 4 dollar handle for the last few weeks. Our next major level of support is 3.520. A close and settle below this 3.520 support level will confirm a possible move down to the 3.350 and 3.200 support areas. Traders are expecting to see some type of retrace once these levels are hit and then natural gas prices to possibly push lower. This overall bearish sentiment is due to high inventory levels combined with last weeks’ news that we may experience warmer than usual weather patterns in the US this winter.
Tune in this morning to hear a full Analysis and pit commentary.
Levels:
Support: 3.520, 3.444 3.350, 3.250
Resistance: 3.590, 3.640, 3.735, 3.870
Friday, December 7, 2012
12/7/2012 Update:
Thursdays Crude Pit Session:
High: 87.09
Low: 85.68
Settle:
86.22
Looking
ahead to today’s crude pit session:
We watched
crude oil prices dip in into the 85 handle making pit session lows at
85.68. A weaker than expected job number
today could continue to fuel this push down. Poor economic data out of Europe
regarding Germanys weaker than expected industrial numbers report and an
earthquake in Japan further raise crude oil traders concerns that demand will
decline and stockpiles may increase. Additionally, we need to keep a close eye on
geopolitical news out of Syria, Turkey and the Middle East as any escalation of
unrest in these regions could impact prices.
Levels:
Support:
85.68, 85.38, 85.00, 84.50, 84.26, 84.00, 81.71
Resistance: 86.00, 86.81, 87.00, 87.50, 87.93, 88.23,
89.23
Thurdays Natural Gas Pit
Session:
High: 3.748
Low: 3.614
Close /
Settle: 3.659
Today’s
Natural Gas pit session:
Looking back
at yesterday’s pit session for Natural Gas we saw a wide trading range off of
inventory numbers with a greater than expected draw of -73BCF, analyst were forecasting a draw of -63BCF to -70BCF. For a historical perspective, the 5 year
inventory level was at a draw of 51BCF compared to the last years draw of 14BCF,
so we can see storage levels are lower. We can possibly see Natural Gas prices
trade lower because of a weather forecast that came out earlier this week from
the national weather service forecasting warmer than expected weather across
the United States.
Tune in this
morning to hear a full Analysis and pit commentary.
Levels:
Support: 3.612,
3.586, 3.530
Resistance: 3.750, 3.825, 3.916
Thursday, December 6, 2012
12/6/2012 Update:
Wendsdays Crude Pit Session:
High: 88.57
Low: 87.46
Settle:
87.87
Looking
ahead to today’s crude pit session:
Despite yesterday’s
DOE inventory numbers coming in with a larger draw than forecasted (-2.4m vs
-400k) we saw crude oil prices continue to fall as a result of a surge in RBOB
and Heating Oil stockpiles. This push down was further fueled as news
that Democrats and Republicans talks to avert the looming fiscal cliff are
breaking down. An open below yesterdays pit
session low of 87.46 could be a bearish indication that crude oil traders may
continue to push prices down; otherwise we could see prices chop today. Additionally,
we need to keep a close eye on geopolitical news out of Syria, Turkey and the
Middle East as any escalation of unrest in these regions could impact prices.
Levels:
Support: 87.46,
87.36, 87.00, 86.86, 86.00, 85.75, 85.00, 84.50
Resistance: 87.97,
88.50, 89.05, 89.50, 90.00, 90.19, 91.00
Wednesday, December 5, 2012
12/5/2012 Update:
Tuesdays Crude Pit Session:
High: 88.88
Low: 87.57
Settle: 88.57
Looking
ahead to today’s crude pit session:
Crude made
pit session session lows of 87.57 yesterday and then rebounded to overnight
highs of 89.05. The rebound came as we continued to see
downward pressure on the dollar and the API reported a negative -2.2 million barrel
draw in inventories. Additionally, other
analysts forecasted a -1.25 million barrel decline. DOE inventories are due out today at
1030am. They are currently forecasting a
negative -400k barrel draw in inventories. If the DOE number is released with a larger
draw than the -400K forecast as the API reports and analysts indicate, then we
can expect to see crude oil traders possibly push prices higher. Positive news that the Euro zone is making
progress solving their sovereign debt crises and the US is possibly making
progress in avoiding the fiscal cliff could also help fuel a rise in prices
Levels:
Support: 88.57,
88.46, 87.98, 87.57, 87.09, 87.00, 86.50
Resistance:
89.00, 89.18, 89.35, 89.83, 91.00, 91.20, 82.00
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
12/4/2012 Update:
Mondays Crude Pit Session:
High: 90.33
Low: 88.75
Settle:
89.05
Looking
ahead to today’s crude pit session:
We saw crude
trade within a 1.58 range Monday settling at 89.05 failing to hold above the 90.00
level. We continued to see crude oil
traders push price lower during last night’s London session making overnight
lows at 88.19. We are going to need to
keep a close eye on tonight’s API inventory report to get an idea if we may
actually see -400k barrel draw in tomorrow’s DOE inventories report. As a larger than expected draw in inventories
could push crude oil prices back up and a build will continue pressure the
downside.
Levels:
Support: 88.00,
87.80, 87.50, 87.00, 86.22, 86.00
Resistance:
88.60, 89.00, 89.35, 89.50, 90.00, 90.33, 90.96, 91.50, 92.54
Mondays Natural Gas Pit Session:
High: 3.631
Low: 3.563
Close /
Settle: 3.593
Looking
ahead to today’s Natural Gas pit session:
Natural gas retraced
to the 3.631 level after breaking below the 3.600 level on Friday. Then we watched traders push prices back down
to close and settle at 3.593. An open close
to or below Fridays pit session low of 3.547 may be a bearish indication that
could push us down to the low end of our range at the 3.350-3.200 levels
Tune in this
morning to hear a full Analysis and pit commentary.
Levels:
Support: 3.541,
3.526, 3.475 3.358 3.467, 3.377, 3.334, 3,200
Resistance:
3.592, 3.643, 3.658, 3.709, 3.826, 4.00
Monday, December 3, 2012
12/3/2012 Update:
Fridays Crude Pit Session:
High: 88.98
Low: 87.98
Settle:
88.94
Looking
ahead to today’s crude pit session:
We saw crude
trade within a 1.00 range Friday settling at 88.94 failing to break above the
89.00 level. However, during last night’s
London session crude oil prices did in fact push into the 89 handle making
overnight highs at 89.30. An open above
89.00 will be a bullish signal that prices may continue to rise. We need to keep a close eye on the 90.00
level as a break above this level could easily push us into the 92.00-94.00
handle with positive economic news coming out of Asia and the Euro Zone. We still need to keep an eye on Negotiations
in Washington regarding the looming fiscal cliff as negative news regarding
this issue could drive prices lower.
Levels:
Support: 89.00,
88.64, 88.50, 88.28, 88.00, 87.63, 87.00, 87.62
Resistance:
89.50, 89.65, 90.00, 9.50, 90.66, 91.00, 91.50, 92.00
Fridays Natural Gas Pit Session:
High: 3.679
Low: 3.546
Close /
Settle: 3.561
Looking
ahead to today’s Natural Gas pit session:
We watched
natural gas trade continue to trade lower off Thursdays EIA inventory report
that came in at a 4 BCF build much higher than the forecasted -5 BCF draw. We finally pushed through and settled below
the major 3.600 and support level. An
open below this level may be a bearish indication that could push us down to
the low end of our range at the 3.350-3.200 levels
Tune in this
morning to hear a full Analysis and pit commentary.
Levels:
Support:
3.520, 3.467, 3.377, 3.334, 3,200
Resistance:
3.600, 3.653, 3.733, 3.866, 4.000,
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