2/13/2013 Update:

Tuesday’s Crude Pit Session:

High: 97.75

Low: 97.18

Close:  97.48

Looking ahead to today:

Although we saw crude hit a new 7 day high at 97.75 yesterday, we traded in a tight 57 cent range with little overall participation from pit traders.  Weakness in the Dollar and OPEC’s monthly report raising their 2013 oil demand forecasts helped us catch a slight bid late in the session before pulling back and settling at 97.48.  Last night’s API report showed an unexpected draw in gasoline supplies by 810K barrels, Crude -2.3m barrel draw and Distillates also fell by 1.1 million barrels.  Today’s 1030 DOE inventory is forecasting a 2.5 million barrel build in inventories.  Using last night’s API numbers as a leading indicator into today’s DOE number we may expect to see larger than expected draws in inventory’s that could continue to put upward pressure on prices.   Keep in mind that although we are trading near our 95.00 to 98.00 range highs.  We still need to close and settle above the 98.00-98.30 level to break this range to the upside, possibly pushing us up into the 100-103 handle as options suggest.

Levels:

Support: 97.75, 97.47, 97.18, 96.90, 96.68

Resistance:  98.04, 98.30, 98.61, 99.00, 99.50

  

Tuesday’s Natural Gas Pit Session:

High: 3.301

Low: 3.323

Close:  3.234

Looking ahead to today:

Tuesdays Natural Gas Traders were on the offer for most of the session yesterday as the latest NOAA 6-10 day forecasted basically average temperatures across the US.  Ahead of tomorrow’s Natural gas storage report, we need to keep a close eye on the 3.200 support level.  A breach of this level could push us down to the 3.00 range as the winter season appears to be coming to an end creating less demand on Natural gas stock piles. 

Levels:

Support: 3.261, 3.230, 3.223, 3.209, 3.200, 3.170

Resistance: 3.300, 3.314, 3.330, 3.352, 3.443

Tune in today to hear Marty's live analysis and pit commentary on all the NYMEX Energy Markets.   www.tradersaudio.com

2/12/2013 Update:

Monday’s Crude Pit Session:

High: 97.09

Low: 95.16

Close:  97.01

Looking ahead to today:

We saw crude oil prices catch an initial offer off opening bell with active dealer selling.  However, a series of early Geopolitical news releases including two separate explosions in Sierra and Istanbul combined with an announcement from the ECB stating that the Euro was not overvalued put upward pressure on crude as the dollar started showing weakness.  Additionally, we saw the Brent/WTI spread tighten by almost a 1.70 helping push crude to close and settle above the 97.00 handle.  This rise in prices continued throughout the overnight session making new highs at 97.45 as North Korea defied the world by conducting another underground nuclear test.   That said, we will need to keep a close eye on any Geopolitical news that could continue driving prices to the upside.  We also need to pay close attention to today’s API report due out later today as analysts are predicting a 2.35M rise in crude inventories ahead of tomorrow’s closely watched DOE report.   As today’s trading session unfolds keep in mind we are still trading in a 95.00 to 98.00 trading range and crude oil traders are looking for a close and settle below the 95.00 handle as an indication to get short and possibly take us down to the 86.00 area.  Conversely, the upside line in the sand that could push us into the 100-102 handles remains a close/settle above the 98.00-98.30 areas.  

Levels:

Support: 97.01, 96.42, 95.75, 95.16, 94.97, 94.49

Resistance:  97.45, 97.68, 98.00, 98.30, 100.28

  

Monday’s Natural Gas Pit Session:

High: 3.295

Low: 3.211

Close:  3.280

Looking ahead to today:

Mondays Natural Gas prices caught a slight offer at opening bell making lows at 3.211 the lowest since Jan 11th.  Before catching a relatively strong bid to the upside pairing some of its losses for the session.  We need to keep a close eye on the 3.200-3.050 area support levels, as a hold of these support levels could possibly push us back to the top of our range.  We also need to stay on top of this week’s latest weather forecasts as continuing cold weather reports may act as support in this market.

Levels:

Support: 3.295, 3.261, 3.228, 3.211, 3.207. 3.173

Resistance: 3.316, 3.327, 3.349, 3.400, 3.437

Tune in today to hear Marty's live analysis and pit commentary on all the NYMEX Energy Markets.   www.tradersaudio.com

2/11/2013 Update:

Friday’s Crude Pit Session:

High: 96.57

Low: 95.27

Close:  95.72

Looking ahead to today:

We saw Friday’s crude oil prices catch a bid at opening bell off better than expected news out of the U.S., China and Germany.   However this push up was once again short lived as we saw Brent break the 119 handle to the upside pushing the March WTI/Brent spread wider by about 1.30 to 23.00.   Once this spread broke 23.00 we saw dealers and locals sell hard off 96.57 highs to lows at 95.72.   Although we saw some long covering by locals into the close leading us to settle at 95.57, the overall sentiment in the pit was bearish.  Looking ahead to this week, we may remain locked in the 95-98 dollar range we have been trading in since the middle of January.  Many floor traders are still looking for a close and settle below the 95.00 handle as an indication to get short and possibly take us down to the 86.00 area.  Conversely, the upside line in the sand that could push us into the 100-102 handles remains a close/settle above the 98.00-98.30 areas.  That said, we need to keep an eye on any major Geopolitical or Economic news this week that could ultimately become the catalyst to break this 95-98 trading range.

Levels:

Support: 95.27, 95.14, 95.04, 94.55, 93.55

Resistance:  95.85, 96.44, 96.57, 97.15, 98.00

  

Fridays’ Natural Gas Pit Session:

High: 3.327

Low: 3.261

Close:  3.272

Looking ahead to today:

Fridays Natural Gas prices caught a slight bid at opening bell making pit session highs at 3.327.  However, colder weather forecasts and the major winter storm that was bearing down on the East Coast was still not enough to offset the very large storage levels we are seeing in the Natural, or the fact that the winter heating season is rapidly coming to an end.  We need to keep a close eye on the support level in 3.250 areas this week.  A hold of these support levels could possibly push us back to the top of our range.  We also need to stay on top of this week’s latest weather forecasts as continuing cold weather reports can still act as some support in this market

Levels:

Support: 3.256, 3.236, 3.211, 3.140

Resistance: 3.382, 3.308, 3.327, 3.353

Tune in today to hear Marty's live analysis and pit commentary on all the NYMEX Energy Markets.   www.tradersaudio.com

2/8/2013 Update:

Thursdays’ Crude Pit Session:

High: 97.21

Low: 95.54

Close:  95.84

Looking ahead to today:

We saw crude yesterday catch a bid off opening bell on news that Iran would no longer discuss their oil production and nuclear programs with the U.S.  However, this push up was short lived as we saw the Equities markets pull back dragging Crude, RBOB and Heating Oil with it.   Yesterday’s price action clearly kept us locked in the same 95-98 dollar range we have been trading in since the middle of January.  We will most likely stay in this range until we see some major economic data is released or tensions in the Middle East escalate.   The very low volatility we have been seeing further confirms that we should not expect to see any major price swings keeping us locked in this range.  A close and settle above the 98.00-98.30 will still be bullish indication that we could slowly drift up to the 100-102 handle and a settle below the 95-94.50 handle could push us down to the 90-86 handles breaking our range in either direction.

Levels:

Support: 95.84, 95.54, 95.34, 95.00, 95.64

Resistance:  96.28, 97.02, 97.21, 97.95, 98.30

  

Thursday’s Natural Gas Pit Session:

High: 3.428

Low: 3.282

Close:  3.286

Looking ahead to today:

Yesterday’s Natural Gas Storage report showed a smaller than expected draw in inventories pushing prices lower for most of the pit session settling below the 3.410 support level.  We now need to keep a close eye on our next support levels of 3.280-3.250 areas.  A hold of these support levels could possibly push us back to the top of our range.  This week’s 6-10 weather forecasts combined with the major winter storm hitting the Northeast will act as some support in this market.

Levels:

Support: 3.282, 3.226, 3.169, 2.998

Resistance: 3.340, 3.397, 3.453, 3.511

Tune in today to hear Marty's live analysis and pit commentary on all the NYMEX Energy Markets.   www.tradersaudio.com

2/7/2013 Update:

Wednesdays’ Crude Pit Session:

High: 96.99

Low: 95.14

Close:  96.64

Looking ahead to today:

We are looking at a stronger bullish type market before today’s pit session bell as we caught a strong bid off yesterday’s 95.14 lows making new overnight highs at 97.17.   If this uptrend continues we need to see a break and close above the 98.00-98.30 level to possibly push us into the 100.00-102.00 handle as options suggest.  If we do close and settle above the 98.00 handle we are expecting a slow drift up to the 100’s unless tensions in the Middle East escalate which would cause a rapid spike in prices.  Conversely, we are looking at a break below the 95.00-94. 50 support levels to be a bearish indication that could push us down into the 90.00 to 86.00 handle.   This still remains a possibility as we saw the 94-90 PUT levels still trading heavily yesterday as supply remains high and heating season is coming to an end.  

Levels:

Support: 96.26, 95.52, 95.04, 94.41, 92.56

Resistance:  96.99, 97.37, 98.30, 99.00, 99.96

Wednesdays’ Natural Gas Pit Session:

High: 3.459

Low: 3.413

Close:  3.419

Looking ahead to today:

We have seen natural gas trading higher during the last few pit sessions off of colder 6-10 day weather reports and talk of a major snow event hitting the East Coast this weekend.  However,  keep in mind that’s this market is still being driven by extremely high inventory levels and technical weather patterns and we are currently trading near the major 3.40-3.60 levels where many traders are looking to possibly cover long positions.   That said,  we need to keep a very close eye on todays 11am Storage numbers (-135 BCU Draw Forecasted) as a larger than expected draw could continue to push prices higher and a smaller draw may spark long covering at these levels.

Levels:

Support: 3.433, 3.407, 3.398, 3.372

Resistance: 3.459, 3.468, 3.494, 3.555

Tune in today to hear Marty's live analysis and pit commentary on all the NYMEX Energy Markets.   www.tradersaudio.com

2/6/2013 Update:

Tuesdays’ Crude Pit Session:

High: 97.07

Low: 96.53

Close:  96.66

Looking ahead to today:

Despite the more the 50 cent break even trading range from yesterday’s pit session, there is not too much to speak of. Last night he had the API inventory numbers come out for crude and products, with crude showing a larger than expected build of 3.625 million barrels. The Cushing OK plant shows a small draw of 24k but the build still gives us a selling opportunity as our analysts forecast for crude inventories are looking for a build anywhere from 2.5 million to 3 million barrels. In the pit, volatility offered yesterday by 2 vols lower, as skew shows offer by way of mid and back month calls coming in.  Basically telling us, there are no new buyers in the market until we pass this 98 dollar handle. Big trades did go off in the pit yesterday, but there was no follow through because volatility was on the offer and moving lower. Ahead of our opening bell and in reaction to the last nights API inventory numbers, crude is trading lower in the overnight session with implied volatility up 2 vols.  That said, we want to keep an eye on today’s 1030am inventory numbers and watch the technical levels above the 98 to 98.30 for a bullish breakout or a break below the 95 to 94.50 for a bearish sell off. 

Levels:

Support: 96.02, 95.38, 95.00, 94.50, 94.22

Resistance:  96.55, 97.07, 97.18, 97.70

Tuesdays’ Natural Gas Pit Session:

High: 3.407

Low: 3.318

Close:  3.401

Looking ahead to today:

We saw natural gas trade higher yesterday off a colder than expected weather report in the next 6 to 10 days. Keep in mind, the high production issues going on with natural gas is still impacting this market. This market right now is solely driven by technical weather patterns and inventories at the moment so we have to keep an eye on all of them. We are expecting to see Natural push up to the 3.45 to 3.60 level and then possibly watch it sell off.  However, tune in for a full commentary to get the complete breakdown on today’s Natural Gas pre- pit action.

Levels:

Support: 3.384, 3.336, 3.318, 3.270

Resistance:  3.451, , 3.480, 3.498, 3.612

Tune in today to hear Marty's live analysis and pit commentary on all the NYMEX Energy Markets.   www.tradersaudio.com

2/4/2013 Update:

Friday’s Crude Pit Session:

High: 98.15

Low: 96.51

Close:  97.77

Looking ahead to today:

Crude oil inched its way up last week to the 97.50 to 98.00 levels and is now looking a little over bought.  That said, we could possibly see a sale coming into place here, UNLESS we close and settle above the 98.30.  Marty Errico, Analyst at Traders Audio, says “most floor traders he spoke to are looking to get short at 97.50, and the only way they will reverse their positions is if we get a close and settle above the 98.00 to 98.30 levels”.  The heating season is coming to an end and there is a lot of Crude oil inventory available.  Refineries are also having lots of problems cracking there crude oil into heating oil and gasoline, so there is a PUT to Crude oil prices.  On the other hand, tensions in the Middle East problems may escalate forcing prices to jump up.  A close and settle above 98.00, 98.30 can push prices into the 100 handle possibly topping out at 103.  If we don’t see a close and settle above 98 on crude prices may easily push to the low 90 dollar handle according to traders on the floor and as options suggest. 

Levels:

Support: 96.80, 96.51, 95.84, 95.47, 94.20

Resistance:  97.48, 98.15, 98.30, 98.44, 99.52

Friday’s Natural Gas Pit Session:

High: 3.387

Low: 3.278

Close:  2.297

Looking ahead to today:

Over Supply!!  That’s what many floor traders keep yelling out to me when I ask them what I think about Natural Gas.  Traders at the NYMEX are still waiting for that energy point in this market to take it short.  Levels to watch the short begin to come into play are 3.60 to 3.40 our long awaited resistance zone.  Keep in mind there is so much fracking going on across the United States that producers are shutting down Rig’s. This is currently creating a supply balancing act.  Shutting down rigs is only a quick fix there still is so much Natural out there that a sell may be coming soon.

Levels:

Support: 3.278, 3.259, 3.214, 3.105

Resistance:  3.323, 3.368, 3.387, 3.432

Tune in today to hear Marty's live analysis and pit commentary on all the NYMEX Energy Markets.   www.tradersaudio.com